Survivor Pool Picks For NFL Week 15: Advice For Eliminator & Knockout Pools

Survivor Pool Picks For NFL Week 15: Advice For Eliminator & Knockout Pools (2019)

December 11, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Patrick Mahomes is again the frontrunner to win the MVP Award (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

In this post, we’ll analyze the five most popular Week 15 NFL survivor picks, using the “Holy Trinity” of pick data we introduced in our first survivor post of the season: win odds, pick popularity, and future value.

This deeper level of analysis is big reason why our subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings over the past two seasons.

This is an early assessment of the Week 15 survivor outlook. If numbers have changed significantly by Friday, we may update it later in the week.

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Review Of Last Week’s Survivor Picks

Week 14 was a pretty rare week where our recommendations mirrored the public. The three most popular choices were also our three most frequent recommendations (though at slightly different distributions). Houston was the biggest loss of the week for survivor pools. The public popularity rate and our recommendation rate for the Texans were both near 25%. That loss accounted for all of our subscriber-recommended losses. The public did also lose a few other teams that were being selected at lower rates.

As a result, our recommendations survived at a 75.5% rate while the public survived at an estimated 71.1% rate. That result still leaves TeamRankings’ recommendations ahead of the public on the year. We estimate that 0.4% of the public has survived compared to 3.6% for our subscriber recommendations.

Week 15 NFL Survivor Picks Analysis: No Super Popular Choice, More Diversity

Week 15 is here, and we have more diversity among the top choices than in any other week this season. Kansas City is the most popular choice, but their 21% pick popularity is the lowest “most popular team” pick rate of the year. The last time the most popular choice was below 30% was back in Week 2 (When New England and Baltimore were co-favorites at 28% and 26% respectively).

Note: in the analysis below, we refer to the expected value (EV) of picking various teams this week. The values we’re using are based on a standard-rules pool with 100 opponents alive, and assuming the same pick rates as those reported nationally. EV values differ by pool size, so these values may not match those we report for your pool.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver)

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 21%

Point Spread: -10

The Chiefs headline this week’s picks, with 21% of the public going with Kansas City at home against Denver. Denver just wrecked 25% of entries last week when they cruised to victory against Houston, and hope to do so again playing their AFC West rival.

Kansas City is a solid choice this week, and rate as the fifth-highest EV of the week. They only rank fifth because there are five choices this week with projected win odds over 75%, and Kansas City’s popularity is dropping them below the other options. But if you don’t have those other choices available, Kansas City is one of the safest options this week. And plenty of public entries are going with teams that have less than 70% win odds. We estimate nearly 30% of entries this week will be on teams a tier below Kansas City in safety.

Kansas City also has some future value. They play the Chargers at home in Week 17. While they might be locked into a playoff spot, there is still a good chance they are in the running for a first round bye that week and playing to win.

New York Giants (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 13%

Point Spread: -3.5

The New York Giants are a semi-popular choice this week playing Miami at home. That’s largely because they have not been used in any other week and are available. They also have some value as a pick in pools with a wins tiebreaker, and some entries may be taking a chance on the Giants for that reason.

The Giants are a riskier choice, with only 65% win odds. New York is 10th in our projected win odds this week, but the nine teams in front of them have all been far more heavily used by survivor entries thus far.

New England Patriots (at Cincinnati)

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 13%

Point Spread: -10

New England has not had a pick popularity above 2% since back in Week 6 (before the vast majority of entries were eliminated with the events of Week 10 and Week 13). They were of course very heavily used in the first six weeks of the season. Those who have saved them are starting to use them again this week.

They are in the same tier as Kansas City in win odds. In a vacuum they are a solid play this week (3rd highest EV). But if you have other options, and have saved them this far, they also have great future value.

New England looks like the best choice in Week 17, when they host Miami. A few weeks ago, it looked like they might be resting starters in that game. But with recent losses to Houston and Kansas City, the chances that they will be playing for a first round bye (or the AFC East title) in that game have gone up dramatically. Because of that reason, our recommendations will more likely save New England for some entries that still have them, if there is a reasonable alternative.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. New York Jets) 

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 9%

Point Spread: -15.5

Baltimore has the highest win odds and highest EV of the week, and play in the Thursday Night game.  Of course, Baltimore has that high EV, and relatively low popularity for their win odds, precisely because they have been heavily used.

They also have some future value for those that need a pick in the last two weeks, as they play at Cleveland in Week 16 (in a week with no clear top options) and host Pittsburgh in Week 17.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Atlanta)

Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 9%

Point Spread: -11

San Francisco looks like they will be the most recommended selection for our subscribers. They have the second-highest win odds and second-best EV, but can be viewed as being in the same tier as Baltimore as a choice. Our subscribers also did a better job of preserving San Francisco through the middle of the season compared to the public.

Add in that they close with the Rams and at Seattle, and this looks like a good spot to use them if still available. As of right now, over 40% of remaining subscriber entries have been recommended to use San Francisco.

Remember to Get Customized Week 15 NFL Survivor Picks Advice 

If you are a survivor pool picks subscriber, you have access to the customized survivor picks for your specific pools. For example, Oakland is currently the second-most frequent recommendation for our subscribers, playing against Jacksonville, and they were not in the five most popular public choices this week.

Also remember that this article is written earlier in the week. It is a more general summary of the week that may not be applicable to your pool rules. Some information could be outdated by Sunday. It also doesn’t include more analysis beyond the most popular picks, and value can often come from unpopular choices. Pick popularity can change over the course of a week, and injury news and line movements can alter which picks are the best for your pool. So don’t forget to visit our NFL Survivor Picks before your deadline to submit picks, and also visit the Football Pick’em Picks and NFL Betting Picks.

You can also read our daily notes in the article section of Survivor for continued updates on issues and news that comes up affecting survivor decisions.

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