Domestic soccer returns this weekend, and we have a few fantastic matches on the horizon. The weekend opens up with a banger between Manchester City and Liverpool, and the other notable matches include Newcastle hosting Chelsea and Aston Villa traveling to London to take on Tottenham.
Below, I’ve listed my top-three bets for Premier League Matchday 13. Let’s dive into the picks and analysis!
- Best Soccer Betting Odds
- How to Bet on Soccer
- Soccer Sports Betting Strategies
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Premier League Matchday 13 Preview & Best Bets (2023)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023 Soccer Betting Record: 32-25 (+0.93 units)
Manchester City (-135) vs. Liverpool (+330), DRAW (+340) | O/U 3.5 (+125/-155)
The Premier League returns in style with a huge matchup between first-place Manchester City (28 points) and second-place Liverpool (27). Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday at 7:30 a.m. ET from Etihad Stadium in Manchester.
I don’t think we’ll see as many goals as City’s recent 4-4 barn-burning match with Chelsea, but I still anticipate these top offenses coming to life on Saturday morning. Liverpool is ranked first in the PL in expected goals (xG) with 26.5, while Manchester City is third with 24.4. In terms of actual goals, the Citizens lead the English top flight with 32 tallies, while the Reds are in third with 27.
I will play it conservatively and take the alternative over at 3.0 goals at -135. We see repeatedly where City dominates possession in these big matches and strangles opposing offenses. I don’t think it’s outlandish to expect a 2-1 final, so I’d like to pay a premium to have a push in our pocket. However, these two high-powered, well-rested offenses should come to play this weekend, and I’m expecting something in the range of 2-2 or 3-2.
Bet: Alternative Over 3.0 (-135)
Brentford (+360) vs. Arsenal (-130), DRAW (+280) | O/U 2.5 (-110/-110)
Mid-table Brentford is putting together another solid season, even with all the injuries and the suspension of goalscorer Ivan Toney. Meanwhile, Arsenal (27 points) can leapfrog into first place with a favorable result in the City/Liverpool clash. This match is set for Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET from Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford.
The oddsmakers aren’t expecting a ton of scoring here, as they’ve set the total at just 2.5 goals. Maybe we won’t reach three total goals in the match, but I do believe each squad will net at least one goal. I’m taking both teams to score (BTTS) at -130.
Arsenal has been very sound defensively this campaign, allowing just 10 total goals (first). However, Brentford has found a decent amount of offensive success at home, netting 12 goals over six matches (2.0 GPM). Also, the advanced stats say the Bees are one of the better offenses in the PL this season, ranking them sixth in xG at 22.1. This should be a scrappy game, but I ultimately like both teams to score at least once.
Bet: Both Teams To Score (-130)
Tottenham (+135) vs. Aston Villa (+175), DRAW (+290) |O/U 3.5 (+125/-155)
I’ve been high on the Villans this season, and picking up points on the road against Tottenham would be huge for their season. Aston Villa is currently in fifth (25 points), while the Spurs sit right above them with 26 points. This match is the Sunday morning opener, scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
I went back and forth on how to bet this match since there hasn’t been a ton of consistency lately with each team. The Spurs have hit a bit of a rough patch with two straight defeats, while Aston Villa continues to struggle on the road.
Ultimately, I agree with the sportsbooks and think we’ll see some scoring on Sunday morning. Considering the similar odds, I think it’s more likely that we’ll see Son Heung-Min score than see the game total reach 4+ goals. So, I’ll play him as an anytime goalscorer. Heung-Min has been the top scorer for Tottenham this season, netting eight goals over 12 domestic matches. He’ll take on an Aston Villa side that hasn’t been sharp on the road this term, surrendering 12 goals over six road contests. The final stat to note is that the forward has scored six goals in his last seven games against Aston Villa. Let’s ride with Heung-Min to score on Sunday.
Bet: Son Heung-Min Anytime Scorer (+130)
Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcast | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
