NFL Week 4 Rankings & Projections Update: Jaguars Back In Playoffs

NFL Week 4 Rankings & Projections Update: Jaguars Back In Playoffs

September 28, 2017 – by Seth Trachtman

The top ten teams in our NFL Week 4 Rankings

In this post, we’re going to share the biggest NFL Week 4 rankings and predictions updates, then preview some interesting Week 4 matchups on the NFL schedule.

Editor’s Note: Our NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted for Week 4.

NFL Week 4 Rankings Updates

Here are the top 10 increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 4. Keep in mind that predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team:

	Team	Division	Ranking	Rating	Rating_Chg
1	Jacksonville	AFC South	12	1.3	3.1
2	New Orleans	NFC South	20	-0.5	2.1
3	Washington	NFC East	21	-0.5	1.5
4	NY Jets	AFC East	32	-7.8	1.3
5	Minnesota	NFC North	11	1.9	1.1
6	Chicago	NFC North	29	-5.1	1.1
7	Houston	AFC South	19	-0.4	0.9
8	Dallas	NFC East	8	2.7	0.9
9	Buffalo	AFC East	25	-2	0.9
10	Kansas City	AFC West	2	5.5	0.7

Jacksonville’s demolition of Baltimore in London makes them the big predictive ratings winner of the week. The Jaguars also climbed a whopping 10 spots in the rankings to #12 this week.

Meanwhile, the Saints climbed six spots to a #20 ranking this week with a 21-point win at Carolina.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 4 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top 10 gainers in projected total wins for the 2017 season heading into Week 4:

	Team	Division	Total_Wins	Total_Wins_Chg
1	Jacksonville	AFC South	9.6	1.7
2	New Orleans	NFC South	7.7	1.5
3	Chicago	NFC North	5.7	1.2
4	Washington	NFC East	8.1	1
5	NY Jets	AFC East	4.6	1
6	Minnesota	NFC North	9.2	0.9
7	Dallas	NFC East	9.3	0.9
8	Buffalo	AFC East	7.7	0.9
9	Kansas City	AFC West	11.5	0.7
10	Tennessee	AFC South	9.9	0.7

The Jaguars have been bad for so long that 9.6 wins almost seems like a misprint, but the team is currently 2-1 in a weak AFC South division.

Jacksonville still (slightly) trails division rival Tennessee in projected wins, after the Titans helped their own cause with a home win over Seattle.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 4 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

	Team	Division	Win_Division	Win_Division_Chg
1	Kansas City	AFC West	64.0%	22.3%
2	Atlanta	NFC South	60.4%	19.2%
3	Jacksonville	AFC South	36.4%	13.7%
4	Minnesota	NFC North	30.8%	9.5%
5	LA Rams	NFC West	21.3%	9.0%
6	New Orleans	NFC South	11.5%	7.3%
7	Pittsburgh	AFC North	63.9%	4.7%
8	Dallas	NFC East	41.7%	4.3%
9	Washington	NFC East	16.7%	4.0%
10	Buffalo	AFC East	11.3%	4.0%

A Chiefs win against a division opponent, coupled with losses by AFC West foes Oakland and Denver, helped KC become the biggest gainer in Week 3.

The Chiefs now have a nearly 2-in-3 chance to win their division, while Atlanta and Pittsburgh aren’t far off those odds to win the NFC South and AFC North, respectively.

Pittsburgh is an interesting case this week. Despite suffering an upset loss at Chicago, the Steelers’ odds to win their division actually increased slightly thanks to all three division rivals losing, and top threat Baltimore getting crushed by Jacksonville.

Entering Week 4, the NFC North now looks like the most hotly contested division. Three teams (Packers, Vikings, Lions) sit at 2-1 and have at least a 24% chance to win the division. Green Bay is currently the favorite, but with only 42% odds to win it.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 4 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

	Team	Division	Make_Playoffs	Make_Playoffs_Chg
1	Jacksonville	AFC South	60.4%	29.8%
2	New Orleans	NFC South	25.4%	15.0%
3	Minnesota	NFC North	52.4%	14.5%
4	Kansas City	AFC West	85.7%	12.7%
5	Atlanta	NFC South	78.8%	12.1%
6	Buffalo	AFC East	25.0%	11.3%
7	Washington	NFC East	29.9%	10.7%
8	Dallas	NFC East	57.3%	10.4%
9	LA Rams	NFC West	27.2%	7.3%
10	Tennessee	AFC South	65.6%	6.5%

Jaguars fans shouldn’t celebrate quite yet, but Jacksonville’s playoff odds have nearly doubled since last week thanks to an unexpected win and 37-point margin of victory over the Ravens.

The Patriots currently have the top playoff odds at nearly 90%, but the Chiefs and Falcons aren’t far off following big Week 3 wins. Could we be looking at a Patriots-Chiefs playoff rematch of their Week 1 game?

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 4 Schedule Watch

Here are three games on our radar screen for NFL Week 4, either for their excitement factor, importance to projections, betting line movement, or some/all of the above:

Pittsburgh at BaltimoreSun 1:00pm ETBoth Pittsburgh and Baltimore are coming off of disappointing games, with the Steelers falling to the Bears and the Ravens imploding against Jacksonville in London. This heated rivalry between AFC North teams has been closely fought recently, with the last four head-to-head matchups all decided by a touchdown or less. The home team has won the last three games, but the visiting Steelers are field goal favorites as of Wednesday afternoon.

Philadelphia at LA ChargersSun 4:05pm ETIt’s not often you see an 0-3 squad favored over a 2-1 team, but the Chargers were holding steady as slight 1-point favorites early in the week. This game feels like a must-win for the Chargers, lest they fall to 0-4 with three consecutive home losses. LAC has suffered two close losses partly thanks to their poor kicking efforts, but they’ve still averaged only 16 points/game so far. The Eagles are coming off a last second home win over the Giants, but will be without star defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and running back Darren Sproles.

Oakland at DenverSun 4:25pm ETOne of the league’s best divisions features a big early-season rivalry game in Week 4, as the Raiders and Broncos, both 2-1, square off. Both teams are coming off disappointing road losses in Week 3, and the loser could suffer another big setback in the race to keep pace with the AFC West leading Chiefs. While Denver has won 9 of the last 11 head-to-head matchups, Oakland has won two of the last three. The Broncos were field goal favorites early in the week.

Get info on all Week 4 games with our NFL schedule and NFL odds.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 4, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 4 games, please check out our premium products:

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