Christian Mbilli vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko Prediction, Odds & How to Watch

Oct 5, 2019; New York, NY, USA; Sergiy Derevyanchenko looks on after the IBF World Middleweight Championship boxing match against Gennadiy Golovkin (not pictured) at Madison Square Garden. Golovkin won via unanimous decision. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY SportsChristian Mbilli puts his undefeated record on the line against Sergiy Derevyanchenko on Saturday (Aug.17)The super middleweight clash pits a rising star against a battle-tested veteranRead below for Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko prediction, odds and tale of the tape

The boxing world turns its eyes to Quebec City on Saturday night as unbeaten sensation Christian Mbilli faces grizzled veteran Sergiy Derevyanchenko. This super middleweight showdown pits a rising star against a battle-tested contender, with high stakes for both men.

Oddsmakers are siding with the youngster on Saturday night, pricing “Solide” as a heavy -450 favorite over the veteran Derevyanchenko. The over/under for total rounds is priced at 9.5, with juice favoring the “over”.

Here is a tale of the tape analysis for Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko, along with boxing odds and our betting prediction.

Christian Mbilli vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko Odds

As the odds clearly show, Mbilli is a significant favorite at -450, with the veteran Derevyanchenko coming back at +360. The Over/Under is set at 9.5 rounds, with the Under slightly favored at -135, indicating that oddsmakers expect a stoppage before the final bell.

Looking at the prop bets, a Mbilli win by KO/TKO is the most likely outcome at -110, while a decision victory for the Frenchman is priced at +150. If you believe in the upset, Derevyanchenko by KO/TKO is a hefty +900, while a points win for the Ukrainian is +550.

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Mbilli Betting Analysis

Mbilli (27-0, 23 KOs) has been a force at 168 pounds. The 29-year-old Frenchman’s aggressive style and knockout power have earned him quite a reputation. He’s fresh off a first-round demolition of Mark Heffron in January.

Mbilli’s game is all about educated pressure. “Solide” cuts off the ring, works the body, and unleashes punishing combos. His 72″ reach could be key in controlling distance against Derevyanchenko.

But Mbilli isn’t just a brawler. He’s shown improved defense and ring IQ in recent outings. His head movement and ability to slip punches have made him an elusive target, even as he presses forward.

The pressing question is how Mbilli will fare against an elite technician like Derevyanchenko. Can “Solide” cut off the ring effectively against a savvy veteran? Will his power hold up against a proven world-class chin? This fight will reveal a lot about Mbilli’s ceiling.

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Derevyanchenko Betting Analysis

Derevyanchenko has been in the ring with a who’s who of middleweight greats. “The Technician” has gone the distance with Golovkin, Jacobs, Jermall Charlo, and most recently, Jaime Munguia. His losses have been close, competitive bouts—direct evidence of his skill and grit.

The Ukrainian’s style is built on fundamentals. He’s a clever boxer with excellent footwork and a ramrod jab. He’s comfortable fighting off the back foot, using angles and counterpunching to disrupt his opponent’s rhythm.

??Sergiy Derevyanchenko going to war with Jaime Munguia in one of the best fights of 2023pic.twitter.com/k6mhofNsbi

— Tokkerū (@ATokkers5) August 13, 2024

Derevyanchenko’s experience is his biggest asset. He’s seen every style imaginable and knows how to adapt on the fly. His ring IQ could be the key to nullifying Mbilli’s pressure and making the younger man pay for his aggression.

However, age and mileage are obvious concerns. At 38, Derevyanchenko’s reflexes and stamina aren’t what they once were. He’s been in wars, and that wear and tear accumulates. Against a young, hungry fighter like Mbilli, the Technician will need every ounce of his guile and toughness.

Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko Tale of the Tape

mbilliVSderevyanchenko

27-0	Record	15-5
23	Knockouts	10
5’9″ (175 cm)	Height	5’9″ (175 cm)
72″ (183 cm)	Reach	68″ (173 cm)
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox

Mbilli vs Derevyanchenko Prediction

This is a classic crossroads fight. Mbilli is the young gun looking to prove he belongs with the elites. Derevyanchenko, meanwhile, is the seasoned pro out to show he’s still got it.

Look for Mbilli to start fast, trying to overwhelm Derevyanchenko with pressure. The Ukrainian will attempt to weather the early assault, using his jab and movement to frustrate Mbilli.

As the fight wears on, Mbilli’s body work and relentless pace should start to sap Derevyanchenko’s energy. By the late rounds, the older man’s tank will be running low.

My pick is “Solide” by late stoppage or wide decision. His youth, power, and nonstop style will prove too much for Derevyanchenko. It won’t be easy—the Ukrainian is as tough as they come—but Mbilli should have his hand raised on Saturday night.

 

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