49ers, Packers, Eagles Move Up — NFL Week 9 Rankings & Projections

49ers, Packers, Eagles Move Up — NFL Week 9 Rankings & Projections (2019)

October 29, 2019 – by Seth Trachtman

Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers can finish anywhere from the No. 1 seed to the No. 6 seed in the NFC (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by San Francisco, Green Bay, and Philadelphia.

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NFL Week 9 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 9. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Division	Result	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
San Francisco	NFC West	W vs. Carolina 51-13	2	2	7.7	9.9	2.3
Philadelphia	NFC East	W at Buffalo 31-13	20	11	-0.2	1.3	1.5
Green Bay	NFC North	W at Kansas City 31-24	6	5	4.2	5.2	1.0
Washington	NFC East	L at Minnesota 19-9	31	31	-9.2	-8.3	0.9
New Orleans	NFC South	W vs. Arizona 31-9	7	7	3.9	4.5	0.6

The 49ers continue their huge climb after blowing out the Panthers by 38 points. Now a perfect 7-0, the 49ers are the breakout team of 2019 so far. Currently ranked second, they’re nearly 4.0 points ahead of our No. 3 ranked team, Kansas City.

Philadelphia rebounded from two lopsided losses to defeat the Bills on the road. They have a very interesting month of November ahead with three straight home games vs. Chicago, New England, and Seattle.

Green Bay had the good fortune of facing the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium without star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Our power ratings don’t directly consider injuries, so the Pack got a nice boost defeating the Chiefs in a game which they were 6-point underdogs, according to our ratings.

Even after suffering their seventh loss, Washington was one of our biggest gainers in the ratings with a closer than expected 10-point defeat at Minnesota on Thursday night. Our ratings had Washington as 18-point underdogs.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 9 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2019 season heading into Week 9:

Team	Division	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Green Bay	NFC North	W at Kansas City 31-24	11.0	11.8	0.9
Philadelphia	NFC East	W at Buffalo 31-13	8.1	8.9	0.8
San Francisco	NFC West	W vs. Carolina 51-13	13.0	13.7	0.7
LA Chargers	AFC West	W at Chicago 17-16	6.0	6.7	0.7
Tennessee	AFC South	W vs. Tampa Bay 27-23	7.2	7.7	0.5

The aforementioned Packers are now projected to win 12 games, which would be their best season since 2014. New head coach Matt LaFleur is off to a solid start at 7-1.

San Francisco has a history of success, but if they can hit the 14-game win projection, it would be the most wins for the franchise in a season since 1992.

Tennessee picked up a big win vs. Tampa Bay, but are still only projected to win eight games after three straight 9-7 seasons. The Titans have a tough matchup at Carolina this week, followed by a home date with the Chiefs.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 9 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Div Win Odds Change
Green Bay	NFC North	W at Kansas City 31-24	54.9%	70.1%	15.2%
New Orleans	NFC South	W vs. Arizona 31-9	70.1%	84.6%	14.5%
Philadelphia	NFC East	W at Buffalo 31-13	30.7%	40.6%	9.9%
San Francisco	NFC West	W vs. Carolina 51-13	85.3%	91.9%	6.7%
LA Chargers	AFC West	W at Chicago 17-16	3.5%	7.9%	4.3%

The NFC North continues to open up for the Packers, who have a 70% chance to claim the division. Their unexpected win was the biggest reason for the increase, but they were also aided by a less than expected Vikings win and Chicago’s third consecutive loss.

New Orleans got Drew Brees back in Week 8, and didn’t miss a beat with their sixth straight win. After the rest of the NFC South lost on Sunday, the Saints are looking very likely to win the division for the third straight year.

The Chargers have some remote hope in the AFC West after a win over Chicago, paired with losses by the Chiefs and Raiders. However, Kansas City is still the overwhelming division favorite with about an 84% chance to win.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 9 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Playoffs Odds Change
Philadelphia	NFC East	W at Buffalo 31-13	33.9%	45.6%	11.7%
Green Bay	NFC North	W at Kansas City 31-24	78.6%	89.9%	11.3%
Seattle	NFC West	W at Atlanta 27-20	33.0%	40.5%	7.5%
Tennessee	AFC South	W vs. Tampa Bay 27-23	16.1%	22.3%	6.3%
Indianapolis	AFC South	W vs. Denver 15-13	56.7%	62.9%	6.2%

Most of Philadelphia’s playoff odds come from their 41% chance to win the NFC East. They remain a half game behind the Cowboys in the division, and a Wild Card would be tougher, as they are currently behind Minnesota, Seattle, the Rams, and Carolina in that race.

Speaking of Seattle, the Seahawks have only about a 41% chance to make the playoffs despite their 6-2 record through the first half of the season. The NFC West looks like the best division in football, and Seattle has the toughest remaining schedule in the league.

Indianapolis got a major scare from the Broncos at home but were able to get their fifth win thanks to a clutch Adam Vinatieri field goal. They remain slight favorites over the Texans in the AFC South, but even if they fail, the Colts have a good shot to win a Wild Card spot with only six AFC teams currently at five or more wins.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 9, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 9 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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